The Art Basel & UBS Global Art Market Report 2025: A Market in Transition

The ninth edition of The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2025, authored by renowned cultural economist Dr. Clare McAndrew of Arts Economics, landed in April with findings that confirmed what many in the trade already knew: 2024 was a challenging year. Yet beneath the headline decline lies a more nuanced story of market transformation, with implications that extend well beyond short-term sales figures.

Global art market sales declined 12% year-on-year to an estimated $57.5 billion, marking the second consecutive year of slowing sales following an initially positive post-pandemic recovery in 2022. This represents the market's lowest level since 2020, yet the report reveals a paradox: while sales values fell, transaction volumes increased by 3% to 40.5 million, demonstrating continued dynamism particularly in lower-priced segments.

The divergence between declining values and rising volumes tells us this isn't a simple downturn—it's a structural shift. The top end of the market dragged the rest down, with the number of fine art works sold at auction for over $10 million falling by 39% in 2024, compounding a 27% drop in 2023. Sales in this top segment declined 45% by value, the biggest decline across all price brackets.

The $10 million-plus sector has gone from accounting for 33% of the art market's total value in 2022, to just 18% in 2024. Meanwhile, sales under $5,000 grew both in value (up 7%) and volume (up 13%). This bifurcation represents perhaps the most significant finding in the report.

Regional Performance: Shifting Power Dynamics

The United States maintained its lead as the dominant global art market, accounting for 43% of global sales, an increase of 1% from 2023. However, sales in the country declined by 9% year-on-year to $24.8 billion, marking the second consecutive year of falling values following a 10% decrease in 2023.

In a notable shift, the UK was the world's second-largest art market in 2024, accounting for 18% of global sales by value, representing a 1% increase in market share year-on-year, though sales declined by 5% to $10.4 billion. This places the UK above China, which had held second position in 2023.

China's global share of art sales dipped 4% year-on-year to represent 15% of the global market in 2024, with art sales declining by 31% year-on-year to reach their lowest level since 2009. The report attributed this sharp decline to slower economic growth, a continuing property market slump, and broader economic uncertainties affecting collector confidence.

In the EU, overall sales fell by 8% to $8.3 billion, including a 10% sales decline in France.

The Dealer Sector: Diverging Fortunes

Sales in the dealer sector dropped by 6% to $34.1 billion in 2024, with mixed performance across segments. However, the aggregated figure masks significant variation. Smaller dealerships saw a 17% boost in sales, signaling greater accessibility for new collectors and increased interest in emerging artists.

Most of the largest dealers (with turnover of $10 million-plus) felt sales would stabilize in 2025, with 19% predicting an increase. Optimism was highest in the middle market, with those hoping for increasing sales in the $500,000 to $1 million segment up from around a third at the end of 2023 to 51% at the end of 2024.

Looking ahead, 80% of dealers expected stable (47%) or improved (33%) sales in 2025, suggesting cautious optimism despite the challenging environment.

The Auction Market Contracts Sharply

Sales in the auction market fell for the second consecutive year in 2024, with combined public and private sales by auction houses dropping by 20% to $23.4 billion, their lowest level since 2020. This decrease followed a strong post-pandemic recovery and was significantly impacted by weakness at the high end.

Public auction sales declined by 25% year-on-year, while private sales through auction houses countered this trend with a 14% increase to $4.4 billion. The robust performance of private sales highlights shifting buyer preferences toward discretion and curated transactions away from the public auction spectacle.

Despite the fall in values, the volume of auction transactions remained resilient, growing by 4% year-on-year, with a 6% rise for fine art auctions, continuing the 2023 trend of increased activity at the lower end of the market.

Online Sales Continue Growing

Online art sales rose by 7% to $11.8 billion, making up 18% of total turnover. Most online transactions involved works priced below $50,000, highlighting the channel's accessibility. This continued growth demonstrates that digital channels, accelerated during the pandemic, have become permanent fixtures in how art is bought and sold.

The report's data confirms a hybrid model emerging where online platforms and physical fairs play complementary rather than competing roles, with different price points and collector types gravitating toward each channel.

Gender Representation Shows Progress

One notable finding from the report is that galleries with more than 50% representation of women artists showed a 4% increase in sales, compared to those with less than 50%. The report notes that there is not enough information to establish a direct relationship further than correlation.

Representation of women artists varied from region to region. Dealers in the United States now show 46% representation of women artists, which is up 10% from last year. On the other hand, galleries in China and the United Kingdom show far less parity, with only 25% and 29%, respectively.

The Shadow of Trade Policy

Perhaps the report's most sobering analysis concerns emerging trade tensions. McAndrew writes that the 'global dominance of art hubs like the US and the UK is founded not only on their domestic wealth and art trade infrastructures but also on their transparent and regulated environments for art sales.' Protectionist policies, meanwhile, are 'directly detrimental to national art markets.'

As UBS's Chief Economist Paul Donovan noted in the report's release, "Most developed economies achieved a soft landing in 2024, and from an economic perspective, the outlook should be one of continuity. However, politics introduce uncertainty, with the shift toward economic nationalism bringing trade protectionism, restrictions on labor movement and limits on capital flows."

During the report's launch panel, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Global Equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, warned: "We are at the doorstep of a new regime of trade regulations. The last time the U.S. imposed tariffs at this level was at the start of the Great Depression."

She added that "it's not just about financial costs, it's the uncertainty that freezes investment," noting that even if artworks are not directly targeted, ripple effects—disrupted logistics, rising shipping costs, and tightening compliance—could reshape how, where, and even whether art is bought and sold.

What This Means for the Market

Clare McAndrew observed: "While the market has declined in value for two years, one of the most positive developments has been the growth of sales at the lower and more affordable prices. The number of artworks sold for prices in the sub-$50,000 range has expanded and there has been evidence of success by both dealers and auction houses in reaching new buyers, giving the market a broader and more diversified base for sales."

This broadening of the collector base may prove the report's most significant finding for long-term market health. A market overly dependent on ultra-high-net-worth individuals purchasing trophy works proved vulnerable when that segment retrenched. The growth at accessible price points suggests a more sustainable foundation.

As Paul Donovan noted: "Amid the great wealth transfer and shifts in the global economic landscape, we are witnessing a turning point in the art market. Despite the adjustment in global sales values, transactions remain high, with positive signs from the presence of new buyers. The market's ability to adapt and attract new buyers underscores its enduring appeal."

Art Basel CEO Noah Horowitz struck a balanced tone, noting that "While one of the key themes in 2024 was the continued easing of the high end of the market amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting collector behaviors, new buyers nevertheless made their presence felt, sales volumes accelerated and transactions at art fairs ticked up."

Strategic Implications for Collectors and Dealers

The report suggests several strategic considerations for market participants:

For collectors: The cooling at the top end may present opportunities to acquire quality works at more reasonable valuations than during the overheated 2021-2022 period. Meanwhile, the strengthening mid-market offers compelling entry points for newer collectors.

For dealers: The effects of political and economic volatility on the market remained the greatest challenge for dealers, followed by maintaining relationships with existing collectors. Success will require balancing cultivation of new collectors in the growing accessible segments while maintaining relationships with established clients.

For galleries: The report's finding that smaller galleries saw gains while larger operations faced challenges suggests nimble, focused programs may have advantages in the current environment. The correlation between women artist representation and sales growth, while not proven causal, merits attention.

The Bigger Picture

The 2025 Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report documents a market in genuine transition. The post-pandemic boom has definitively ended, but what's emerging is potentially healthier: broader collector participation, more transactions at sustainable price points, and reduced speculation at the top end.

The challenges are real—geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and generational shifts in collecting behavior all present obstacles. Yet the market's demonstrated ability to adapt, attract new buyers, and maintain robust transaction volumes suggests resilience.

As Dr. McAndrew's comprehensive analysis makes clear, this isn't simply a down cycle to be weathered until the next boom. The structural changes underway—the democratization of collecting, the hybrid online-offline model, the geographic diversification, and the broadening of what and who is collected—represent a fundamental evolution in how the art market operates.

For those willing to embrace rather than resist these changes, the current transition may ultimately prove a turning point toward a more sustainable, inclusive, and robust art market. The report provides an essential roadmap for navigating this transformation, backed by the most comprehensive data available on the global art trade.

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The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2025 is available for free download at ubs.com/artmarket