How will current politics impact the Middle East art market?

Sotheby's navigated a challenging sale; however, resilience persists within the market.

Palestinian artist Samia Halaby's 1969 painting Seventh Cross No 229 surpassed its estimate to achieve £381,000. Photo: Sotheby's

In the midst of a conflicted region, Sotheby's conducted its Middle East sale on Tuesday, procuring high prices for select pivotal lots, albeit achieving a mere 54 percent sell-through rate. The extent to which this will assuage the apprehensions of observers within the Middle East art market, anticipating the reverberations of the Israel-Gaza conflict, remains uncertain and is significantly contingent upon the reach and impact of these political occurrences.

Mai Eldib, the head of sales for Sotheby's Middle East, notes, "It's understandable that the mood of certain buyers has been influenced by the distressing turmoil we are witnessing. Nonetheless, since our exhibition's commencement last week, we have observed a substantial turnout, with individuals eager to honor the myriad artistic expressions from this culturally affluent region."

The timing of the auction, occurring less than three weeks after the commencement of the Israel-Gaza conflict, was notably conspicuous. Artworks by esteemed modern masters, such as Shafic Abboud and Adam Henein, struggled to attract buyers, and despite Sotheby's promotion of the Fahrelnissa Zeid piece as the auction's highlight, it scarcely surpassed its minimum valuation of £350,000 ($424,392), ultimately selling for £355,600. This was despite its inclusion of a handwritten dedication from Zeid to her granddaughter on the back of the canvas. This outcome may suggest the considerable weight of the ongoing political events on the mindset of buyers. Notably, almost all works by Palestinian artists were sold, with only one exception, underscoring the collective support of collectors in the Arab market concerning this issue.

Comprising 123 lots, this sale notably surpassed the usual scale and amassed a total of £4.8 million, marking the highest figure for a Sotheby's Middle East sale in London since 2016. This achievement was predominantly driven by the outstanding performance of top lots. Notably, a resplendent and captivating artwork boasting an array of blues by the Lebanese modernist Huguette Caland exceeded expectations by fetching £445,000, surpassing its estimated value of £200,000-£300,000, thereby establishing a new auction record for the artist. Similarly, a compelling piece by Palestinian artist Samia Halaby, currently featured in a retrospective at the Sharjah Art Museum, was sold for £381,000, significantly surpassing its estimated value of £100,000-£150,000. Created in 1969, the voluminous geometric painting titled "Seventh Cross No. 229" represents one of the artist's acclaimed periods of creativity.

The substantial total earnings and the establishment of auction records strongly indicate the enduring robustness of the market, particularly for esteemed artists and exceptional artworks.

Shafic Abboud's incandescent Villa des Iris (1984) is leading Bonhams's November Middle East sale. Photo: Bonhams

The ascending course of the Mena market stands in stark contrast to outcomes observed in other regions. While lackluster sales at the Frieze fairs and during Saturday's Sotheby's auction showcased a noticeable decline in the mainstream modern and contemporary market, it becomes apparent that the impacts of the Ukraine war, the interest rate hike, and the cost of living crisis are finally making an impact. The broader market had previously enjoyed insulation from these shocks primarily due to a sequence of infrequent single-owner collections brought to auction within the past year. This sequence artificially inflated prices, thus shielding the market from the underlying impacts of these economic and geopolitical factors.

However, the trajectory of the market has followed a distinctive course, diverging from other economic paths. This autumn, the three prominent auction houses—Sotheby's, with its recent sale, Christie’s scheduled for November 9, and Bonhams on November 15—have assembled notably robust collections. Sotheby's extensive auction featured segments from significant collections, including those of Maya Rasamny and Rana Sadik. Christie’s showcases a segment of the esteemed Dalloul Art Collection, while Bonhams is poised to present works by renowned modernists such as Shafic Abboud, Omar El Nagdi, and Shakir Hassan Al Said.

The substantial supply on offer indicates the confidence of sellers in the current market conditions. This buoyancy stems largely from the increasing presence of Saudi buyers, both individual and institutional. Notably, a growing number of Saudi modernist artworks are emerging in auctions. Artists like Mohammed Al Saleem, the founder of the Saudi Art House in Riyadh during the 1980s, were previously infrequent in auction circles. However, a recent sale of an Al Saleem work from 1986 soared past his previous auction record, fetching £889,000, far surpassing its estimated value of £100,000-£150,000. Moreover, at Sotheby’s, the sale of three works by Abduljabbar Al Yahya, a Saudi modernist born in 1931, exceeded expectations, despite his art not having a significant market presence and it being his inaugural appearance in auctions.

Ibrahim El-Salahi, Palm Tree. Photo: Christie's

Meagan Kelly Horsman, the managing director of Christie's Middle East, underscores that despite auction houses maintaining buyer identities in confidence, fervent bidding for specific artworks aligns with the influx of new market participants from various regions.

"Over recent years, we've witnessed instances of intensely competitive bidding, indicating the potential involvement of regional institutions in the art market. There are several aspects to consider in this scenario: Firstly, when a work fetches a price significantly above its estimate, it suggests not just one but at least two entities deeply engaged in acquiring the piece. Secondly, the content of the artwork plays a crucial role in captivating clients to bid competitively. We've seen outstanding examples of modernist works commanding high prices due to their scarcity in the market, such as Dia Al Azzawi’s 1964 work on paper, 'Gilgamesh Epic No 4,' which realized $119,700 against an estimate of $15,000-$20,000 in our Dubai online sale this May."

Horsman, succeeding long-time Dubai head Michael Jeha, brings an extensive market background in the UAE and has significantly contributed to Christie's rebound from faltering results two years ago when they removed the Middle East sale from their calendar. The spring fixture has since returned in the format of a Dubai online auction, with its initial edition in May boasting a commendable 90 percent sell-through rate.

Regarding the untitled Al Saleem painting at Sotheby's, the buyer remains undisclosed. However, considering the fervent bidding for this piece inspired by the Riyadh desert, it is probable that a Saudi collector or one of the emerging institutions from the region made such an enthusiastic bid for a creation by one of the country’s pioneers.

Saudi collectors have significantly impacted the sales in various ways. Observers have noted a decrease in artworks featuring nudity and political themes, as the sales adapt to cater to the preferences of a new, more conservative group of buyers—echoing the adjustments witnessed in the early days of the Dubai sales.

Moreover, an increase in Saudi collections entering auctions is notable. The recent Sotheby’s sale featured pieces from Shatha Ibrahim Al Tassan, a significant early Riyadh collector who established the Hewar Art Gallery in the Saudi capital back in 2006. Al Tassan's collection was among those from three other female collectors, including the late Rasamny, a highly esteemed figure known for her substantial support of Middle Eastern art. She served as the first chairwoman of the Royal Academy and was a member of both the Tate and the British Museum's Middle East and North Africa acquisition committees. Additionally, Sotheby’s presented artworks from Sadik, a Palestinian collector residing in Kuwait, who has curated a highly respected collection encompassing both Middle Eastern and international art.

The commendable caliber seen in the sales at Christie’s and Bonhams is likely to yield similar outcomes. Among the striking items from the Dalloul collection, comprising 48 works, Christie’s presents the esteemed Fille à l'imprime (Girl in a Printed Dress) (1938) by Mahmoud Said as its top lot, with an estimated value ranging from £350,000 to £550,000. An intriguing aside: Dalloul had acquired the same artwork in 2018 from Bonhams for £512,750, including the premium. Notably, an incandescent blue piece by Kamal Boullata is estimated at £20,000-£30,000 but is anticipated to surpass this range given its exquisite craftsmanship. Additionally, Ibrahim El-Salahi’s Palm Tree (2001), an extraordinary geometric painting reminiscent of the Casablanca School in style, is offered at £30,000-£50,000.

The diverse owner sales held concurrently boast remarkable lots, including a substantial photograph from the Desert of Pharan series by Saudi artist Ahmed Mater, estimated at £40,000-£60,000 (from an edition of three plus an artist’s proof), and a softly geometric piece by Etel Adnan (Untitled, 2003) estimated at £60,000-£80,000.

At Bonhams, the highlight is a triptych from the Lebanese master Abboud from 1984, estimated at £300,000 to £500,000. A notable oil on wood panel by Kadhim Hayder, The Martyr from 1969, is estimated at £120,000 to £180,000, while Tekrarre (1985) by Charles Hossein Zenderoudi, one among various Iranian artists in the sale, carries an estimate of £80,000 to £100,000.

Despite the evolving political landscape, the expanding buyer base in the Middle East market and the pursuit of masterpieces are expected to propel the market forward.